"But you're too young to know the score, so come back when you're older.”
-Donny Osmond

When my father was dying of cancer, he said he wasn't worried about not going to heaven. “If God grades on the curve, I am in,” he said. “I have seen the competition.”

Governor Ernie Fletcher, a minister, never sought theological advice from my father, a professional gambler. But if Fletcher views the Kentucky Governorship as heaven, his thoughts might be similar to my dad’s.

If voters grade on the curve, he could have a second term. At the very least, he will be the Republican nominee .

It is only nine months until the primary. If another Republican plans on beating Fletcher, they need to be a multi millionaire or needed to start running two years ago.

Trey Grayson does not fall in either category.

The Republican establishment is unhappy with Governor Fletcher.  Lt. Governor Steve Pence, Senate President David Williams, and United States Senator Mitch McConnell have dropped not-so-subtle hints that Fletcher should find something else to do with his life.

They have a  problem.  Fletcher is not listening to them.   He keeps running for re-election.

I'm writing this shortly after Secretary of State Trey Grayson announced that he is considering a bid to run against Fletcher.

I don't know Grayson well but have followed his career. Like myself, he grew up in suburban Kenton County, and went to the same high school that my sister went to.  My parents knew his parents, and I met Trey when he worked  for my friend Bob Babbage.

Babbage told me years ago that Grayson would get elected to something.  Bob was right.  Grayson  has a great chance to be Governor but not in 2007.

There are two bad  scenarios for Grayson.  One is that Fletcher stays in the race for Governor.  The second is that Fletcher drops out.

If  Fletcher stays in, the 34 year old Grayson faces an incumbent in a party primary.   If Fletcher drops out, more seasoned Republicans like Pence, Williams or one (or more) of the congressional delegation will jump in the race.

With either scenario, Grayson has problems.

It is easy for a Secretary or State, surrounded by fawning staff and well-wishers,  to think it is an simple jump to Governor.  The Secretary of State  walks by the Governor’s office every day.  Or at least sees  the secret door that hides it.

There is a lot of young political talent in Northern Kentucky and some like Grayson or Covington Vice Mayor Rob Sanders (who was recently elected Kenton County Commonwealth Attorney) will eventually  make a splash at the statewide level.  Success will hinge on picking the right race at the right time.

I've often make the case that if Todd Hollenbach and ran for lieutenant governor in 1975 instead of Governor, he would have eventually made it the Governor.  The same holds true for George Atkins in 1979, Grady Stumbo in 1983 and Floyd Poore in 1991.

Once they lost their  gubernatorial bid they were never elected to anything else.  

I would hate to see that happen to Grayson.

Machiavelli said, you're going to make an attempt on a king, you have to kill him. Governor is Kentucky’s   equivalent  to king.  Unless Trey have  financial resources or organization I don’t know about, he is better off waiting.

To take out a sitting governor in nine months  is almost impossible.  I don't care if the Governor is indicted and every major officeholder in the Republican Party is blasting him.  None of those people blasting Fletcher have dared to run against him.

A sitting governor has a lot of power.  The governor dominates news coverage, and has a large staff and contractors beholden to him. 

I would hate to see Grayson throw away a promising career.  I hope he waits  and comes  back when he is older and more seasoned.

The only Governor from Northern Kentucky was William Goebel, who was shot while he took the oath of office. 

I hope that Grayson’s unbridled ambition does not  shoot a hole in his chance to be the second.