Gambler’s Know what Washington  Pundits Don’t.

 "The stars might lie but the numbers never do."

 -Mary Chapin-Carpenter

 Political consultants have an irritating habit.   They say that "we" won a particular election but that "the candidate" lost.

 Taking credit for  victory but  not for defeat prepares consultants for the next  step.  Being a  political pundit.

 Many consultants make the switch to television punditry.  Some don't cut  previous ties.  Commentator Bill Bennett, gives "impartial" advice on CNN while giving campaign donations to John McCain.

I don't want to single out  Bennett.  His ties are easy to trace. Many "independent" observers  work both sides  but don't have a money trail.

Commenting on television while actively supporting candidates   might explain why  pundits are having such a bad year.

With advances in  technology, predictions should be accurate.  Instead pundits keep screwing up them up.

According to  Washington based "experts,"   Hillary Clinton was  going to win Iowa and Obama  would breeze to victory  in New Hampshire.   They were wrong.

Beltway biased observers idismissed  McCain and Huckabee.  Northeast guys like Rudy and Romney were more their type.

The business world has a simpler way to predict outcomes, they see how a company's stock is performing in the markets.   

People buying stocks  have an vision  of a company's future and they have their money riding on it.

Now we can  have  money riding on political campaigns.  There are online services that allow you to bet on  political outcomes. 

Although they call it "futures trading," I call it betting.  I grew up around gamblers and futures trading is gambling in its purest form.

No matter what the title, the  campaign  futures market is fascinating.

I check www.intrade.com on a daily basis.  It is a web site based in Ireland that allows you to wager ( buy  futures contracts) on political campaigns, and a host of other events.

I can see a campaign's momentum by where the bets are going.   It is far more accurate than public polls.

Spin, emotion and how many  Washington dinner parties you are invited to is   taken out of the process.

I haven't tried to open an Intrade account.   I am afraid  of getting sucked in.   I won't   buy lottery ticket or play a slot machine.  Those are sucker bets.

Betting on political campaigns is a battle of wits.

I missed a chance for Mike Huckabee to make me rich.

I was on to Huckabee last summer, when big time Washington pundits were laughing him off.  I had read his book about how he lost 100 pounds.  I saw he could connect with people in a unique way.

While the pundits were touting Rudolph Giuliani,  I could have made a fortune on Huckabee.  

If I bought Huckabee futures  in the summer and sold after the Huck won in Iowa,   I  would have made enough to buy a   Total Gym.

 In fact, I would have made enough to pay   Chuck Norris to come to my house and show me how to use it.

 As the campaigns roll forward, I am going to keep watching the futures market.  The political pundit "stars" might lie but the gambling numbers never do.

 Don McNay is the author of Son of a Son of a Gambler:  Winners, Losers and What to Do When You Win the Lottery.   You can write to him at This e-mail address is being protected from spam bots, you need JavaScript enabled to view it or read his award winning column at www.donmcnay.com